What did Donald Trump do today?

He threatened to "punish" Russia with the same ultra-high taxes on American consumers that he's imposing on our closest allies. 

In recent weeks, Trump has made a show—at least for the cameras—of frustration with the Putin regime's unwillingness to seriously negotiate a peace treaty with Ukraine. Trump promised (fifty-three separate times) that he would resolve the conflict "on Day One," and may actually have believed it would be that simple. 

But neither side is especially interested in a cease-fire. For Ukraine's government to ratify any peace deal that rewards an unprovoked Russian invasion with 20% of its territory is all but unthinkable. And for Russia, as badly as the war has gone relative to its initial expectations, there is every good reason to think it can extend its territorial conquest. That's especially likely to happen if the Trump administration continues to dial back American support for Ukraine, whether or not Trump is aware that that is happening. 

Trump's latest attempt to force at least the appearance of progress has been to threaten to impose tariffs on Russian exports, driving up their cost for American consumers. Notably. the Putin regime has been one of only a handful of countries not subject to new tariffs during Trump's second term.  

There are a few problems with this strategy. First, the United States does very little trade with Russia, importing about $3.3 billion worth of goods in 2024. That's less than 1% of American imports from Canada, the United States' largest trade partner and a close ally, and which is also being threatened with punitive tariffs by Trump.

Second, what is true of the stock markets is increasingly true of world governments: almost nobody thinks he's willing to actually go through with inflation-spiking taxes on Americans, or at least not for more than a token period of time after which he can declare victory. As a result, nations are increasingly calling his bluff, meeting each new proclamation with silence, indifference, or reciprocal tariffs targeted at vulnerable American exporters.

The Putin regime, which has in the past demonstrated extraordinary and direct influence over Trump, has not bothered to respond. But the Moscow stock exchange was up 2.7% today.

Why does this matter?

• Tariffs raise the price of imported goods for American consumers. They don't do any of the other things that Donald Trump thinks they do, like ending wars, stopping drug smuggling, or getting his cronies out of jail. 

• At this point, Trump's belief that tariffs will solve every problem he might face is pathological.