What did Donald Trump do today?

He was full of high hopes for the first day of his Iran War ceasefire, for literally one minute.

At one minute after midnight today, Trump posted this to his private microblogging website:

A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Since then: 

• An unknown force (likely the UAE) attacked an Iranian oil refinery.

• Trump blustered that he would "punish" NATO allies who didn't join the war he launched without telling them by moving US forces stationed in them to countries that did support it, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. One of Iran's demands is that the United States remove its forces from the Middle East. 

• Iran attacked Kuwait. 

• Trump threatened to impose tariffs on any country supplying weapons to Iran. The countries Iran is most likely to buy weapons from—using the money it expects to collect from its new toll revenue scheme—are China and Russia, which were already defying American sanctions before the war.
   
• Israel carpet-bombed Lebanon, drawing a rare rebuke from the International Committee of the Red Cross. Iran has said that there is no ceasefire if it does not also protect Lebanon.  

• Iran attacked the UAE.

• Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth answered "I believe so" when asked if the Strait of Hormuz was, in fact, open. 

• Two hours after Hegseth's comments, Iranian state media announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again because of Israel's attacks on Lebanon. Opening the strait was a condition that Trump set for the ceasefire.  

• Iran attacked Saudi Arabia.

• Trump floated the idea that United States could also be paid by ships seeking protection from being destroyed by Iran. It's not clear why anyone, either Iran or the potential victims of a joint US-Iran extortion scheme, would agree to that. 

• Iran attacked Bahrain.

• Trump ranted about fake "Agreements, and Lists" that were supposedly being sent out by "Fraudsters, Charlatans, AND WORSE" to make him look weak. He had already raged at CNN's reporting on the subject, which was accurate and sourced directly and on the record to the Iranian government. 

• Iran attacked Qatar.

Finally, Iran—which Trump has repeatedly insisted was "desperate" for a ceasefire because "they've had enough"—was already threatening to withdraw from the negotiations that are supposedly to begin Friday in Pakistan.

Why does this matter?

• It's bad that a deteriorating shitshow in a Middle East now dominated by a strengthened Iranian regime is still probably the best outcome of the situation that Trump blundered into. 

• A more skilled dealmaker would know that bargaining from a position of weakness makes it easy for enemies to call your bluff.