What did Donald Trump do today?

He launched attacks against Iran while simultaneously claiming he was inches away from a peace deal.

This evening, the United States military launched missiles at Iranian targets in what it call "defensive strikes." In and of itself, this isn't very unusual: neither Iran nor the United States has paid much attention to the so-called "ceasefire" that Trump declared last month. In practice, the war has continued as it started, only at a slower pace, during which time Iran has begun to replenish its drone and missile stocks.

But today's attack happened as Trump was insisting that a peace deal really, truly is in the works this time. There aren't many specific details forthcoming: in fact, Trump made a point of saying that "nobody has seen it, or knows what it is." That may be literally true: details between different accounts don't seem to match at all. 

It's not easy to keep track of the number of times Trump has announced that the war is over, only to be immediately contradicted by Iran. This reflects the dilemma he's in: Trump can't win the war to the extent he's already claimed without a massive and likely doomed full-scale invasion of Iran, but neither is he psychologically capable of escaping the humiliation trap he's set for himself by making the kind of concessions Iran is now in a position to demand.

That bind has led to the absurd position he is in today, trying to hype a peace deal that has no support from either his friends or enemies.

• Iran's government rejected any suggestion that a deal like Trump described was in the works. Instead, it responded by reiterating its own demand for even agreeing to continue talking: billions of dollars of offshore Iranian funds unfrozen. Iran also categorically refused to commit to even discussing the two most urgent priorities for the United States, giving up its nuclear leverage and relinquishing control of shipping through the Persian Gulf.
  
  
• Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister who convinced Trump to launch the war in the first place, refused to agree to Iran's condition that hostilities in Lebanon would cease. Netanyahu, like Trump, is facing serious criminal charges and is protected from prosecution only while he remains in office.
  
  
• Congressional Republicans, including some of the biggest supporters of the initial attack, are appalled at the prospect of unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets while allowing Iran to continue its de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump himself has railed against the Obama administration unfreezing some Iranian funds as part of the JCPOA, the successful nuclear agreement that Trump pulled the United States out of in 2018.

• Other nations involved in the peace process have their own problems. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which as US allies have taken the brunt of Iran's counterattacks, are desperate for a resolution to the conflict. But Trump added a bizarre coda to his litany of demands: that all parties involved "at a minimum" normalize relations with the Netanyahu government in Israel. This is something that is not only unthinkable for Iran at present, but also practically impossible for American allies in the region. That includes Pakistan, which has been acting as a mediator, and strongly objected to the suggestion today. 

 

Why does this matter?

• This continues to be a humiliating disaster for the United States, whether or not Trump is able to understand it.