What did Donald Trump do today?

He talked tough about how Iran was "supposed" to use its war profits to buy American, then folded on sanctions.

Trump was asked today about the fact that the framework agreement he signed commits the United States to pay out hundreds of billions of dollars which could be used to rearm and rebuild its military. He responded that they weren't "supposed to be doing that," and that they were "supposed" to be buying food with it. 

To be clear, there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Iran will use the money it receives from the Trump administration to rebuild its military. It has willing suppliers in Russia, China, and North Korea. While its most effective weapons against the United States and its allies—as well as the critical threat it was able to levy against commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—were relatively cheap drones and short-range missiles, that money will go a long way towards rearming and developing new models.

The government of Iran is effectively a military junta, one that has already been strengthened by Trump's attack, which killed the legitimate and potentially robust protest movement that had been gaining momentum before the war. Better funding for the rank-and-file will shore up the regime's control at street-level. Iran had been spending between $5 and $10 billion per year on its military in recent years, so the Trump windfall will enable massive spending not previously possible in a country otherwise wracked by economic sanctions.

Trump insisted that Iran is already buying American corn and soybeans, "exclusively from us. This is not even remotely true. Iran does not consume much in the way of corn (about 12% per capita what the United States does) and its soybean use, which is primarily for livestock feed, comes mostly from Brazil. 

Trump has frequently hyped "deals" with other countries in which they agree to vague and unenforceable promises to buy American goods at some point in the future, in exchange for real concessions in the present. This was a new twist: insisting that a hostile nation had agreed to buy American even as it directly contradicted him. Iran's agriculture minister made clear that his government had made no such promise and was under no obligation to abide by any restrictions Trump might put on the funds the United States will release to Iran.

A better sign of where the leverage is in these negotiations came from something Trump did today, rather than said: he ended more economic sanctions against Iran, making it easier for the regime to sell its oil.

Why does this matter?

• Hostile foreign countries will always do what's in their own best interests, not what they're "supposed to" do to help Donald Trump politically. 

• That's especially true when they've effectively just won a war against you.  

• Huge spikes in fuel and fertilizer costs due to the war have been absolutely devastating for American farmers, and imaginary soybean sales won't change that.