What did Donald Trump do today?

He lied about an ongoing fire disaster to score political points.

Yesterday, fires broke out in several locations in the Los Angeles area. Fueled by years-long drought and high winds and temperatures, they quickly became major disasters that have already claimed lives and are expected to result in many billions of dollars in damages.

The Palisades fire on Wednesday. (Karen Ballard, CNN)

This morning, Trump tried to put the blame for this on his political enemies, President Biden and California governor Gavin Newsom. In the process, he spread dangerous lies about the cause of the fires and the reasons that they hadn't been contained yet.

As Newsom's office immediately pointed out, none of this is true. There was never any such thing as a "water restoration declaration." Even with the drought, there is no shortage of water available to fight fires with. The reason that some hydrants are empty is that they are fed by water lines that have been destroyed by the fires themselves.

Trump seems to be saying that he thinks water flows from mountains in Northern California into reservoirs in southern California, and then uphill without human intervention into the mountains that surround Los Angeles, where the fires are currently burning.

This would not be the first time Trump has been dangerously confused about how fire works. In 2018, as president, he claimed that the reason California had devastating forest fires and Finland did not is that Finland "raked" their forests clean. (California is hot and dry; Finland, which is smaller, is cold and wet.) Finland's president had to publicly deny that he had told Trump any such thing.

The question now is whether Trump will use the opportunity to punish Americans living in California by withholding disaster relief aid once he takes office. He has done this many times before, forcing Americans to endure uncertainty about whether their government would help them rebuild simply because they lived in states with Democratic governors, or shutting down relief to Puerto Rico because its leaders criticized his administration's botched response to Hurricane Maria. But he also slow-walked disaster responses in Republican-dominated states like Georgia and Utah because their governors refused to go along with his attempt to overturn the 2020 election.

In fact, Trump specifically threatened California and Newsom on the campaign trail, saying in October 2024 that if Newsom refused to go along with Trump's proposed agricultural policies, “We’ll force it down his throat, and we’ll say, ‘Gavin, if you don’t do it, we’re not giving you any of that fire money that we send you all the time for all the forest fires that you have.’”

Trump, a climate-change denier, blamed California wildfires that happened during his watch on "exploding trees."
 

Why does this matter?

• Past a certain point in a crisis, it doesn't matter if someone is stupid or lying.

• Undermining faith in the basic competence of government and making people dependent on the leader's whim for help is what dictators do.cli

• None of this was about Trump and he didn't need to make it about him.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He said he would strike a deal to end Russia's war on Ukraine, but not by supporting Ukraine.

At a press conference today, Trump had this exchange with a reporter.

Q: At this point, would you -- to hold on to leverage in dealing with President Putin, would you make a commitment to the Ukrainians that you will keep supporting them during the negotiations?

TRUMP: Well, I wouldn't tell you if that were the case.

This fits with Trump's Russia-friendly stance during the campaign and his first term. For context:

Trump was elected in 2016 with open and covert assistance from the Putin regime in Russia, and at one point specifically begged Russia for help on live TV in finding supposed dirt on his opponent, Hillary Clinton. He also clearly viewed Putin and his oligarchs as a financial lifeline, and his son bragged about the amount of money that was being directed their way from wealthy Russians. During his first term, he had a relationship with Putin that at times bordered on the obsequious, if not humiliating. 

His relationship with Ukraine has been colder. In 2019, faced with the prospect of running against Joe Biden, he tried to strongarm the government of Ukraine into ginning up a fake "investigation" of Hunter Biden, who at the time was on the board of a Ukrainian energy company. Trump also demanded that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukraine support his false claim that it was Ukraine, and not Russia, that had tried to interfere in the 2016 election, and against Trump rather than for him. In retaliation for Zelenskyy's refusal to comply, Trump suspended military aid to Ukraine. He only restored it months later when his actions came to light because of a whistleblower's report. Trump then attempted to conceal evidence, ordered staff not to comply with congressional investigations, and fired those who did. Trump was eventually impeached over his actions against Ukraine, which had been a military and strategic ally of the United States since overthrowing a Russian puppet government in 2014. 

Trump, possibly alone out of all American politicians, has never condemned Russia's most recent invasion of Ukraine. While the stalled and protracted campaign itself has been a costly embarrassment to the Putin regime, which had far more military capability than the much smaller Ukraine, it has been devastating to the Ukrainian people. Between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, along with tens of thousands of non-combatants from deliberate Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure like apartment buildings and hospitals.

Why does this matter?

• The United States military and diplomatic might is not there to enforce one man's personal grudges.

• A commander-in-chief who cannot bring himself honor America's commitments to its allies is unfit for the job.

• So is a president who is compromised by his personal loyalty (for whatever reason) to the leader of a hostile foreign power.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He publicly rebuked his own staff who were trying to make his proposed tariffs sound less disastrous.

Trump's immediate post-election announcement of a renewed, expanded trade war against the United States' three biggest trading partners drew immediate criticism from exactly the voters who had just put him back in office. The obvious inflationary impact that a sudden tax added onto the goods paid for by American consumers would have has not gone unnoticed, and led to stories of "buyer's remorse" from an electorate that seems to understand that Trump was lying (or deeply confused) when he said that other countries would pay those costs.

In an apparent effort to soften the political fallout from what would be, in effect, a massive sales tax increase, Trump aides went to the Washington Post with a different story. They claimed that Trump had no intention of doing what he'd said he would do—25% tariffs across the board—but instead would target them only at "certain sectors deemed critical to national or economic security."

In other words, according to the unnamed "people familiar with the matter," Trump's actual plans would be much less drastic, if somewhat short of his campaign rhetoric.

Within hours, Trump went on his private social media network to refute the entire basis of the story. 

The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it's wrong. It's just another example of Fake News.

 
What exactly Trump knows about what is happening inside his own administration is mostly a function of what his staff chooses to tell him. There is a long history of aides reshaping his desired policy without Trump knowing or caring what they're doing, only to have him erupt in fury while at the same time claiming that the supposed sources are made up.

Why does this matter?

• If your own hand-picked loyalists are trying to sabotage your plan, that's a very strong sign that it's a terrible plan.

• Stories are not "fake news" just because they make Donald Trump look bad.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He demanded that Congress implement his entire agenda in "one powerful bill."

Since winning the election, Trump has been walking back a number of his campaign promises. For example, he recently acknowledged that it would be effectively impossible to reduce inflation any lower than its current very low levels, even though that was a central message of his campaign. But among the campaign promises that Trump apparently does intend to keep are his tax, border, and energy proposals.

Today, Trump demanded that the incoming Republican majorities in Congress push all these through in short order in a single bill. Why he wants this is unclear, and it may mean he gets less of what he wants, or none of it. Congressional Republicans, who are looking at a 2-vote majority in the House and the usual anti-incumbency backlash in the 2026 midterms, have said they would prefer to do it in smaller pieces in order to negotiate amongst themselves as to how to best package each part.

The problem that GOP leaders face is that each of Trump's proposals will be deeply unpopular among some segments of their own voters, and more so among swing voters. Making tax cuts for the extremely wealthy permanent, vastly expanding the amount of money borrowed to pay for Trump's agenda, using military troops against civilians suspected of being undocumented immigrants, and canceling working clean energy programs are all potential poison pills. 

Lumping them together into one single bill may all but force some Republican members to vote against it, either out of respect for their constituents' wishes, or fear of being voted out in 2026. Alternatively, it may force the resulting bill to be only half-measures of what Trump wanted, handing Democrats a partial win. This means that by insisting on a single bill, Trump is effectively negotiating against himself.

Trump did not explain why he was so insistent on a single bill, and notably, most Republican leaders in Congress did not immediately promise they'd give him one.

Why does this matter?

• Risking a sure thing for no clear gain is the sign of a bad dealmaker.

• Presidents are not kings.

Posts for Jan. 5th and 6th will appear by 10:00 PM PST tonight.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He complained at length about being found guilty of crimes. 

Trump posted two lengthy, emotional rants to his private social media network today. They once again returned to the familiar theme that Trump has been unfairly persecuted by a shadowy conspiracy of his enemies, and once again included a litany of vague threats of revenge.

It seems likely that the impetus for this outburst was yesterday's order by Judge Juan Marchan that Trump would be sentenced next Friday for the 34 felony charges he was found guilty of buy a New York jury in May.

The substance of Trump's complaint can be summed up in the first sentence of the first post: "I never falsified business records."

But in reality, he did.

It's worth pointing out how many people had to independently reach that conclusion for Trump to become the first ever president to be convicted of felonies. Not only did "evil and sinister prosecutors" have to bring charges, the randomly-assigned judge in the case had to agree that there was a legal basis from the evidence presented. A jury of Trump's New York state peers had to conclude that he was guilty of all 34 counts beyond any reasonable doubt. The same judge had to conclude that this verdict was legally valid. The New York Court of Appeals had to hear and reject all of Trump's post conviction legal arguments that he had not been given a fair trial. 

Trump was convicted not only on the basis of documentary evidence, but the testimony of Trump Organization employees including Michael Cohen, who had already been convicted and gone to prison for his role in some of the crimes that Trump was convicted of.

Why does this matter?

• The justice system in the United States does not stop working simply because a criminal thinks it is unfair that he was caught.

• Believing that the consequences of your own actions are the result of a shadowy conspiracy against you is not a sign of good mental health. 

What did Donald Trump do today?

He got a sentencing date for the crimes he has been convicted of in New York state.

Trump has been indicted for 88 separate criminal charges in four distinct cases. One case is in Georgia and whether Trump will be prosecuted alongside his co-conspirators. Two of them were federal cases that have been suspended, though not abandoned, by the special prosecutor in charge of them, Jack Smith. Trump has complained throughout that these cases—in fact, all allegations or complaints of any kind against him—are the work of a shadowy conspiracy of his political enemies.

In the fourth case, tried in New York state, Donald Trump was found guilty in May by a jury of his peers of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. 

That jury found that Trump had falsified business records in an attempt to conceal payments he made to Stormy Daniels, a porn actor he had sex with shortly after his wife Melania gave birth to his youngest son. This is a crime under New York State law, and a felony because it was in furtherance of other illegal acts. One of those illegal acts was tax fraud. Another was the violation of campaign finance laws, since the "hush money" was meant to keep voters from learning of Trump's affair, and that made the money involved subject to campaign disclosures. 

Today, the judge in the case, Juan Merchan, ruled that Trump would be sentenced for these crimes on January 10. Merchan indicated that he did not intend to order Trump to serve a jail sentence, which is typical for first offenders. 

Trump was also found guilty in a bench trial of criminal contempt for threatening witnesses against him and jurors, and paid a fine.

Trump cannot pardon himself for state crimes, as he is widely expected to do for his federal crimes.

Why does this matter?

• No matter how he justifies it, no matter who he blames, the incoming president of the United States is a convicted felon, and that is not a good thing.

• It's wrong to lie to voters even if you don't commit crimes in the process, but especially if you do.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He threatened to sic the CIA on Americans who oppose him.

Trump continued his rant today about what he claims are the results of "OPEN BORDERS," tying them to two acts of apparent terrorism committed by U.S.-born American citizens—one of whom was a fervent Trump supporter. He then suggested that such crimes happen because he is uniquely persecuted, drawing focus away from other kinds of law enforcement.

They are incompetent and corrupt, having spent all of their waking hours unlawfully attacking their political opponent, ME, rather than focusing on protecting Americans from the outside and inside violent SCUM that has infiltrated all aspects of our government, and our Nation itself. Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen to our Country. The CIA must get involved, NOW, before it is too late.

Trump was indicted on 88 state and federal criminal charges by grand juries made up of American citizens, and convicted by a jury of Americans in the one trial that finished before the election. In most of those charges, even Trump doesn't dispute having done the things in question—only whether he had some special right to commit what would otherwise be crimes.

The Central Intelligence Agency's job is to protect the nation from foreign threats. It's not clear why Trump brought them up: he's had a rocky relationship with "the Company" in the past, in large part because the CIA documented his campaign's coordination with the hostile Putin regime in Russia. He even made a point of trying to humiliate the CIA during a visit to Langley on his very first full day in office in 2017.

But the CIA is not allowed to "get involved" in investigating Americans—nor is any federal agency supposed to be used for personal revenge. If Trump wanted a federal law enforcement agency to "get involved" in settling scores for him, it would probably be the FBI. He has forced the resignation of the current Director (who he appointed) in favor of Kash Patel, who has promised to "get involved" in just that way—although Trump has rarely had the success he wanted in politicizing government agencies.

Why does this matter?

• Turning your intelligence agencies into your secret police is what dictatorships do.

• Politicians who try to make Americans afraid of crime for political gain will not do the things that might prevent it.

What did Donald Trump do today?

He blamed a mass killing apparently committed by a native-born American on immigrants.

Early this morning, a man deliberately drove a pickup truck into a crowd of people celebrating the new year in New Orleans' Bourbon Street district. He then got into a shootout with police, wounding two officers. Ten people were killed and dozens more were injured.

Trump weighed in at 10:48 this morning with a post on his private social media network, saying it proved what he had been saying about immigrants being responsible for the worst crimes.

When I said that the criminals coming in are far worse than the criminals we have in our country, that statement was constantly refuted by Democrats and the Fake News Media, but it turned out to be true. The crime rate in our country is at a level that nobody has ever seen before. Our hearts are with all of the innocent victims and their loved ones, including the brave officers of the New Orleans Police Department. The Trump Administration will fully support the City of New Orleans as they investigate and recover from this act of pure evil!

The suspect is an Army veteran who was born in the United States.

In reality, crime rates are lower than they have ever been in the United States, despite a minor uptick during Trump's presidency. (Trump himself, born in New York, is a convicted criminal.)

Immigrants, documented and undocumented alike, commit far fewer crimes than native-born Americans. That is true of both violent crimes, and crimes in general. 

Immigrants have the strongest incentive to avoid committing even minor crimes, since even a misdemeanor committed while on a valid visa is likely to lead to deportation in practice.

As of early afternoon on the east coast, Trump hasn't made any further statements. That means it's not clear whether Trump knew that the suspect wasn't an immigrant—a fact that had been widely reported at the time—and simply lied, or whether he assumed that a person with a Middle Eastern name must not be an American.

Why does this matter?

• If the only thing you care about when a crime happens is blaming it on immigrants, then you don't "fully support" law enforcement or anyone.

• Lying about imaginary threats to whip up political support is what dictators do.