What did Donald Trump do today?
He demanded that Congress implement his entire agenda in "one powerful bill."Since winning the election, Trump has been walking back a number of his campaign promises. For example, he recently acknowledged that it would be effectively impossible to reduce inflation any lower than its current very low levels, even though that was a central message of his campaign. But among the campaign promises that Trump apparently does intend to keep are his tax, border, and energy proposals.
Today, Trump demanded that the incoming Republican majorities in Congress push all these through in short order in a single bill. Why he wants this is unclear, and it may mean he gets less of what he wants, or none of it. Congressional Republicans, who are looking at a 2-vote majority in the House and the usual anti-incumbency backlash in the 2026 midterms, have said they would prefer to do it in smaller pieces in order to negotiate amongst themselves as to how to best package each part.
The problem that GOP leaders face is that each of Trump's proposals will be deeply unpopular among some segments of their own voters, and more so among swing voters. Making tax cuts for the extremely wealthy permanent, vastly expanding the amount of money borrowed to pay for Trump's agenda, using military troops against civilians suspected of being undocumented immigrants, and canceling working clean energy programs are all potential poison pills.
Lumping them together into one single bill may all but force some Republican members to vote against it, either out of respect for their constituents' wishes, or fear of being voted out in 2026. Alternatively, it may force the resulting bill to be only half-measures of what Trump wanted, handing Democrats a partial win. This means that by insisting on a single bill, Trump is effectively negotiating against himself.
Trump did not explain why he was so insistent on a single bill, and notably, most Republican leaders in Congress did not immediately promise they'd give him one.
Why does this matter?
- Risking a sure thing for no clear gain is the sign of a bad dealmaker.
- Presidents are not kings.